I really appreciate and agree totally with the call from everyone for a positive attitude. But, I'm having a hard time separating the hype from the reality way over here in Japan. I hear similar comments to Jerry's from family and friends, but haven't seen anything concrete enough for me to decide just how bad it really is. (Jerry, I'm not implying that your comments were hype or invalid in anyway, just didn't see any hard specifcs.)
Sure, I hear projections of 6.5% unemployment, but I also remember days when 7 - 8% was the norm. I remember all the wringing of hands years ago about how the Japanese were putting US Steel out of business. And, yes Allentown lost something like 5-6% of it's population in the 70's. But, I don't remember having any real problem getting a job back then, even in the recession of the early 80's. I changed jobs 3 or 4 times during that period, and as long as I had a little drive, even with no real education or any great deal of experience, I managed to find work.
I'm in business management for a large US company in Japan and we are definitely feeling some pressure. We are in a total hiring freeze, however we have been riding just on either side of that border since around 2001.
I don't mean to belittle anyone's suffering, and I am sure with the obvious slow-down that there are people having rough times, and that high-end businesses like jewelry are likely some of the first to feel the pain, but how bad is it really? I haven't heard of any of my relatives losing jobs! Then again, bootleggin in the Ozarks usually booms in times like these, so maybe that's not a good example!
But, stores like Bennigans and Circuit City were already on their last legs. I'm surprised they held on as long as they did, given what I saw the last time I was in either one.
So, is this a real long term, hardcore collapse of our economy, or is it just a couple of quarters of knee-jerk adjustment, exacerbated by a lack of a saving mind set and the talking heads in the media and on the internet yelling, "Fire!", all resulting in a natural weeding out the deadwood?
I tend to think it is the first because of my own personal belief that our current economy is fundamentally flawed, and because we haven't had enough time to really start seeing the ripple effect from the various factory slow-downs, stoppages, and the bail-outs; not to mention the potential fall-out from the policy changes of the coming administration! But, I can't say for certain how bad it is. How far is going to collapse?
Just FYI: Toyota took a total of 14 days work stoppage and the Japanese import / export trade balance has been in the red since October, but I work in the Ginza area of Tokyo (think downtown Manhattan) and just spent time with the wife's relatives in the Toyota HQ area and I haven't seen any sign of a slowdown in buying at either location. The big brand stores here all seem to still have a steady flow of customers. But, then again the local common populace (as with most places) usually seems to have their heads buried right up until something bites them in the behind.
So, suggestions on what we can do? (Ignoring the 600lb gorilla of the fundamental flaw in our economy) I would suggest that we --
stay positive,
keep working,
work together,
be prepared,
save what we can,
be creative and make opportunies happen,
and help our friends, family and acquaintances that are in need.
But, I hope that's what we are doing anyway!
Come what may, let's all pray that ... God Bless the USA
